Hamas is Failing to Rebuild Its Iron Rule
Foreign backers are withholding cash, civilians are enraged, and the group’s administrative apparatus has morale problems
Reconstruction Watch
Why Hamas Can’t Rebuild Its Rule
Frozen funding, escalating extortion, and growing public scorn have pushed the group into a self-defeating spiral
Gaza watchers generally hold that the more time goes by, the more Hamas will be able to retrench and reestablish control in the western half of the Strip, from which Israel withdrew in October. They see a “Tale of Two Gazas,” in which an authoritarian Hamas statelet, west of the so-called yellow line that now divides the Strip, achieves dominance on par with the iron grip that communist East Germany had on its citizens during the Cold War.
This widespread view has frightened foreign governments who are being asked to contribute troops to an International Stabilization Force (ISF) for the territory. Their reluctance to commit soldiers may eventually strengthen calls within Israel to abrogate the October 10 ceasefire and try to finish off Hamas without a multilateral framework. But is the fear well-founded?
The armed group is indeed applying new levels of violence and intimidation in a bid for authority. In just the first days and weeks following the ceasefire, it murdered at least 80 alleged “collaborators” in ISIS-style public executions. It is premature, however, to view Hamas’s retrenchment as a foregone conclusion.
To establish a viable new regime, Hamas needs to achieve what Hezbollah did after the 2006 Second Lebanon War — namely, a massive commitment of assistance from a foreign patron to rebuild its destroyed territory. But the equivalent monies aren’t coming. As a result, Hamas must employ ever-increasing levels of brutality against its own civilians in order to extract funds. The heavy-handed measures it has taken are enraging civilians, most of whom already blame the armed group for triggering the destruction of their territory by launching the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the war.
The consequence, for Hamas, is a vicious cycle in which the more aggressively it tries to reassert its authority, the more it isolates itself from the population and even some of its own recruits.
This predicament crystallized for Hamas on October 20, when White House advisor Jared Kushner told reporters that while the U.S. and its allies will be raising money for Gaza’s rehabilitation, “no reconstruction funds will be going into areas that Hamas controls.” Longtime Hamas supporters Qatar and Turkey, which the U.S. considers key players in post-war planning, appear to have fallen in line with Kushner’s position for now.
Though Gazans report shipments of tents and food aid from the two Muslim countries, neither power appears to be providing cash or construction supplies in western Gaza. (Iran, for its part, is not even fueling reconstruction efforts for its principal Arab proxy, Hezbollah.)
Qatar’s withholding of support in particular reflects a broader “unified Arab position,” as Gazan political scientist Yahya Qaoud put it last week, “that the group must not be part of the political scene.”
Absent such support, Hamas is trying to fuel an attempt at rebuilding its rump state by stealing from the Gazan population in broad daylight.
It has begun “taxing” — that is, extorting — civilians at unprecedented rates, demanding exorbitant fees for cigarettes, food, and tents. Hamas was reportedly charging as much as 500 shekels for a tiny beach plot on which to pitch tents, and demanded 3,000 shekels — some $900 — from one family for two years’ “back rent.”
Its operatives recently summoned a number of Gazan businessmen to a hospital in the central Strip, where they interrogated and extorted them, according to two prominent journalists in the territory. It even kidnapped an executive at a water company on which displaced Gazans depend, pending a ransom.
Gazans, for their part, are expressing outrage that while Hamas is coercing them into paying these sums, it offers nothing in the way of services. That reality came into stark relief in recent weeks when displaced people’s camps flooded after heavy rainfall.
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“This isn’t resistance!” said one man. “The resistance should be here, on the home front. They should provide food, drink, and necessities. Well? Where are they?”
Meanwhile, the new authoritarian apparatus which the Hamas “taxation” is intended to fuel is not coming together well. Some Hamas employees have reportedly refused to participate in the shakedowns. A larger number are meanwhile attempting to flee altogether — which prompted the armed group this week to ban its employees from leaving the Strip without express written permission.
This dysfunction, combined with anger at Hamas enforcers and general blame of the movement for triggering the war, has spawned a wave of public scorn, as the group finds itself increasingly isolated from the civilian population.
“They are ostracized in society,” said one man in a Gaza tent camp. “People are afraid to support them, befriend them, or hang out with them.”
“Honestly, everyone is angry and resentful toward them,” said an elderly man in the camp. “If someone comes to ask for my daughter from any of these factions, he won’t get her. I won’t give her to someone from Hamas.”
In sum, Hamas is not on track to build a rump state, and its brutal attempt to do so has only widened the gap between Hamas and Gazans generally. To make this observation is not to suggest that Gazans, in their anger, will come together to evict the group from Gaza by themselves — but rather to underscore their openness to alternative leadership. If an emerging U.S.-led plan for reconstruction offers housing, food, and a measure of safety from Hamas violence and Israeli military action, Gazans will not only welcome it; they will help in any way they can to expand the zone of reconstruction beyond the Israeli side of the yellow line — into portions of Gaza Hamas still dreams of ruling.