Eye on Damascus
To Rebuild Syria, Its New Leader Must Win Over Non-Islamists at Home and Abroad
The population wants administrative competence; rival factions and foreign powers want inclusive governance.
It has been two months since Syrian rebels led by Ahmad al-Sharaa toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Though Sharaa and his faction, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have shed much of the radicalism of their earlier years, their politics remain fundamentally Islamist and their statecraft reflects a clear goal: total consolidation of power.
Waning Jihadism, Waxing Authoritarianism
Sharaa and HTS grew out of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the most extreme strain of global jihadism. Since 2016, however, they have gradually shed their commitment to that ideology. After the ouster of Assad, they arrested foreign fighters who threatened other countries in the region; declared that “Syria will not pose a threat to any country, including Israel;” affirmed minorities’ right “to live in dignity and freedom;” and ordered churches and Shi’ite shrines to be protected.
In response to 800 airstrikes by Israel in December, which destroyed what remained of Assad’s military arsenal and created a new buffer zone across the border, Sharaa filed a letter of protest with the UN and affirmed his commitment to the 1974 armistice line. For an al-Qa’eda protege, it hardly qualified as a response at all.
At the same time, Sharaa has largely excluded minorities and non-Islamists from any meaningful role in decision-making. All of the transitional government’s cabinet members and provincial governors are drawn from HTS or other Islamist factions. Syrian critics of Sharaa now refer ominously to a “government of one color.”
On January 29, an HTS spokesperson declared Sharaa President of Syria and announced, “All military factions, political, and civil revolutionary bodies will be dissolved.” Sharaa aims to subsume the country’s patchwork of militias under central control. He has also taken responsibility to create a provisional legislature for Syria’s transition process, expected to last for years. So while armed groups pose a challenge to Sharaa, he faces few if any legal constraints as president in Damascus.
An Islamist Technocracy?
The new leader justifies his emerging “government of one color” as a statebuilding necessity – required “to spare Syria from moving toward a spoils system … where we distribute authority and office like gifts to ethnicities and sects.” In a situation as dire as Syria’s, he argues, “offices need to be distributed on the basis of competence.”
Sharaa can indeed point to a track record of competence as former leader of a rebel enclave – and potentially win over much of the population if he delivers on key commitments. Between 2020 and 2024, he built an administration in Idlib that won recognition for its rigor. Idlib produced considerably more electricity than Assad-controlled regions did – despite being Syria’s poorest province, host to over a million refugees, and a target of continual Syrian and Russian bombardment.
Last month, CPC’s team in Damascus interviewed the newly appointed Minister of Electricity, Omar Shaqruq, who built the power grid in Idlib as a rebel. (Watch a subtitled excerpt above.) He said that in recently inspecting the capital’s rickety grid for the first time, he saw the legacy of decades of mismanagement and corruption. Most residents of Assad-held areas subsisted on 2-4 hours of electricity per day, he noted, while a small number of so-called “golden lines” gave round-the-clock power to regime cronies and elites. “As we plan for the future,” Shaqruq said, “there will be no more ‘golden lines.’ All citizens are equal. Everyone deserves electricity.”
Shaqruq’s interview went viral on social media in Syria, reflecting pent-up demand for a basic utility most Westerners take for granted. If Sharaa and his cabinet meet their ambitious goals for Syrian reconstruction, they will accrue substantial support for the new government, whatever its ideological leanings.
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President in Damascus
For years to come, Syrian politics will turn on competing visions for reconstruction after 14 years of civil war. In a country so diverse, fractious, and heavily armed, moreover, it is difficult to imagine a successful recovery without inclusive government or decentralized authority. The country’s myriad armed groups include the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast and several Druze militias in the southwest, whose future vis a vis the new government remains uncertain.
Although Damascus enjoys strong backing from Turkey and Qatar, to end its regional and global isolation, the new leadership needs to win support from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Sharaa has already taken pains to court Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman as well as the Trump administration. A shrewd politician, he knows that without American sanctions relief and massive Saudi investment, Syria’s reconstruction will face severe headwinds.
As he continues to engage these and other powers, he will probe their red lines, negotiate advantages, and win as much latitude as possible for his goals. What he comes away with depends on the acuity and vigilance of those he meets.